Copper prices climb in London amid renewed optimism over U.S.–China trade talks

Copper remains a vital bellwether of global economic health, and all eyes remain on Washington and Beijing as markets await further developments in trade negotiations and tariff policies.

Copper prices rose on Thursday on the London Metal Exchange (LME), buoyed by renewed optimism surrounding trade negotiations between the United States and China, the world’s largest consumer of metals. By 10:27 GMT, the benchmark three-month copper contract had gained 0.8%, reaching $9,199 per tonne, surpassing its 21-day moving average resistance level of $9,195.

The gains follow a 3.3% drop on Tuesday, driven by a sharp decline in the U.S. COMEX copper contract, weak Chinese manufacturing data, and continued uncertainty over potential U.S. tariffs.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that there was a “very good chance” his administration could reach a deal with China. Supporting this sentiment, a social media account linked to Chinese state-run media reported Thursday that the U.S. had initiated contact to discuss Trump's proposed 145% tariffs.

Despite the positive outlook, market analysts remain cautious. “Uncertainty still lingers, especially with the U.S. reviewing possible tariffs on copper imports and unresolved concerns about global economic growth,” said Neil Welsh, analyst at Britannia Global Markets.

Trading volumes remained low on Thursday, as most European markets were closed for public holidays and mainland Chinese markets are shut until Tuesday for a five-day holiday.

Copper was further supported in the short term by declining inventory levels at LME-registered warehouses. The Shanghai Futures Exchange also reported a sharp drop in warehouse stockpiles, reinforcing a tightening supply outlook.

In April, copper prices in the COMEX market surged by 50% as traders diverted metal from traditional Asian markets to the U.S., seeking to capitalize on the price premium between COMEX and the LME. Meanwhile, the Yangshan copper premium—a key gauge of Chinese demand for imported copper—jumped 34% to $94 per tonne, its highest level since late 2023.

According to a poll conducted Wednesday, spot copper prices are expected to reach $9,083 per tonne by the third quarter of 2025. However, analysts have raised their forecasts for a market surplus this year due to concerns that volatile U.S. trade policies may dampen China’s economic growth.

Other base metals saw mixed performance:

• Aluminum: +0.8% to $2,417.50 per tonne
• Zinc: +0.6% to $2,608.50
• Lead: +0.1% to $1,958.50
• Tin: -1.1% to $31,015
• Nickel: -0.6% to $15,310