Gold prices could rise 15% this year

Gold could rise 15% in 2025, but Citi warns of a drop below $3,000/oz by 2026 due to weaker demand and growth optimism. See the latest LBMA survey and Citi’s forecast for gold and silver.

Gold continues to strengthen its position as the safe-haven asset of choice during times of global uncertainty. The latest London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) survey reveals growing optimism among precious metals analysts, who now forecast gold prices to rise by up to 15% over the remainder of the year.

Record Highs and Revised Forecasts

The LBMA survey, released this week, updates the January outlook in which 29 analysts predicted an average gold price of $2,735.33 per ounce for 2025, with none forecasting prices above $3,000.

Since then, unexpected geopolitical and economic developments have driven prices far higher. In April, gold hit an all-time high of $3,500 per ounce, as investors flocked to safe-haven assets amid escalating trade tensions and geopolitical risks.

Mid-Year Averages and Updated Outlooks

In the first half of 2025, London’s gold benchmark averaged $3,070.86 per ounce, climbing from $2,862 in Q1 to $3,279 in Q2, following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of sweeping tariffs.

Amid this context, 13 analysts upgraded their forecasts, projecting an average year-end price of $3,324.40 per ounce, a 27% increase over 2024’s closing price—signaling strong momentum for the metal heading into the second half of the year.

Citi Sees Gold Dropping Below $3,000 in 2025-2026

However, not all forecasts point upward. In a recent note, Citigroup warned that gold prices could fall below $3,000 per ounce by late 2025 or early 2026, driven by weakening investment demand and a more optimistic global growth outlook.

The bank cut its short-term price target for gold to $3,300 per ounce for the next 0–3 months (down from $3,500), and its 6–12 month target to $2,800 (from $3,000).

Citi expects gold to consolidate between $3,100 and $3,500 per ounce during Q3 2025, buoyed by geopolitical risks, potential U.S. tariff shifts, and concerns about the U.S. budget. However, the bank sees a downward trend emerging later in the year.

“We see investment demand for gold abating in late 2025 and 2026, as ultimately, we see the President Trump popularity and US growth ‘put’ kicking in, especially as the US mid-terms come into focus,” Citi wrote.

Longer-term, Citi forecasts gold could fall to $2,500–$2,700 per ounce by the second half of 2026.

In its bullish scenario, gold could rise above $3,500 per ounce in Q3 due to stronger hedging and investor interest amid economic and geopolitical volatility. Conversely, in a bearish case, prices could dip below $3,000 if trade disputes ease, geopolitical tensions subside, and the U.S. economy avoids a hard landing. Still, Citi assigned only a 20% probability to either extreme scenario.

Silver Outshines Gold in Citi’s Outlook

While gold faces a more uncertain path, Citi projects a strong performance for silver, driven by tightening supply and robust demand. The bank forecasts silver to reach $40 per ounce over the next 6–12 months and potentially rise to $46 per ounce by Q3 2025 in a bullish scenario, supported by rapid progress in resolving the U.S.–China trade war and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance.