Aguia Resources strengthens Tres Estrades Rock Phosphate Project with updated economic study

Aguia Resources (ASX: AGR) updates Tres Estrades Rock Phosphate Project in Brazil, raising EBITDA forecast to $444M after higher phosphate price assumptions.

Aguia Resources (ASX: AGR) has released an updated economic study of its flagship Tres Estrades Rock Phosphate Project in southern Brazil, significantly improving the project’s financial outlook after revising phosphate price assumptions.

The company raised its benchmark phosphate price to $200 per tonne, up from $153 per tonne used in the February 2025 study. This revision has boosted projected earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) to $440–444 million, compared to the previous estimate of $158–171 million — a jump of 73%.

Strong Profitability Outlook

Aguia’s Executive Chairman, Warwick Grigor, said the updated figures underline the project’s potential profitability:

“The Tres Estrades Rock Phosphate Project is making steady progress towards achieving first production in March or April next year, with initial sales expected in mid-2026. At recent phosphate prices, the project could be exceptionally profitable.”

The project’s simplicity is a key advantage. It involves free digging, drying, and minor crushing, producing an environmentally friendly product for direct application in pasture crops and other agricultural uses. Minimal capital expenditure is required thanks to available treatment facilities, ensuring lower upfront costs and faster cashflow generation.

Production Plans and Expansion Potential

Phase one of the project is set to mine 100,000 tonnes per year from an open pit, with expansion to 300,000 tonnes per year in later stages.

The economic study assumed reactive natural phosphate with a minimum grade of 12% phosphorus pentoxide (P₂O₅). In addition, mixed natural fertiliser for processing was estimated at 6.5% P₂O₅ and 2.5% sulphide content.

Aguia anticipates that the plant could process up to 50% more ore, raising early annual output to 150,000 tonnes.

To optimise operations, the company has assessed five alternatives for sourcing equipment — ranging from outright purchase and leasing to contractor engagement — ensuring flexibility in its development strategy.

Phosphate Market Context

Phosphate, a vital component for global agriculture, continues to see market fluctuations. According to Trading Economics, the spot price of phosphorus stood at ¥1,025 ($215) per tonne as of 16 September, down 4.63% year-to-date.

With phosphate demand closely tied to food production and global population growth, Aguia Resources is positioning the Tres Estrades project as a cost-effective, sustainable supplier in the fertilizer sector.