Chile predicts copper growth despite mine setbacks

Chile expects copper output growth in 2025 despite mine setbacks, with record production by 2027 and lithium expansion boosting its global role.

Chile, the world’s top copper producer, expects its output to grow this year despite challenges at two major mines, signaling relief for a tight global market amid soaring demand for the red metal.

A fatal accident at Codelco’s El Teniente mine and tailings issues at Teck Resources’ Quebrada Blanca have slowed operations. However, higher production at BHP’s Escondida — up 11% in the first half of 2025 — and recovery at Collahuasi are offsetting those setbacks. Meanwhile, the revamped El Salvador mine is beginning to ramp up.

According to Mining Minister Aurora Williams, Chile is still on track to meet its 2025 copper target of around 5.6 million metric tons, with growth expected this year and next. The country aims for a record 6 million tons by 2027, a significant rebound after production hit a 20-year low in 2023.

“I believe production will increase and Chile will achieve a greater participation in the global market,” Williams told reporters. “Movements in the market point to more supply in the future.”

Copper demand rises with energy transition and AI

Global demand for copper — essential for electrification, renewable energy, and data centers powering artificial intelligence — continues to rise. While Chile has fallen short of past projections, new deals and joint ventures are improving long-term prospects.

Two major adjacency deals could add nearly 300,000 tons to annual production:

• Codelco’s Andina mine integrating with Anglo American’s Los Bronces.
• Anglo American and Teck collaborating on Collahuasi and Quebrada Blanca.

In addition, BHP, Rio Tinto, and Lundin Mining are pursuing large-scale copper projects in Chile and across the Argentine border, with Codelco involved in promising exploration partnerships.

Safety challenges at El Teniente

Following the tragic tunnel collapse at El Teniente that killed six workers, Codelco may need to adopt greater automation to safely access deeper ore bodies, depending on the findings of Chile’s mining authority Sernageomin.

“Chile has the challenge of developing underground mining at increasingly greater depths,” Williams said. “If there are risks, in a country where safety comes first, we will need alternative mechanisms.”

Lithium expansion alongside copper growth

Beyond copper, Chile is pushing forward with its National Lithium Strategy. The landmark partnership between SQM and Codelco is expected to close before March 2026, pending approval from China’s antitrust agency.

Authorities also plan to award three or four new lithium contracts by the end of the current administration, expanding production areas to strengthen Chile’s role in the global battery supply chain.