Codelco faces prolonged impact from fatal El Teniente Mine accident into 2026

Chile’s Codelco expects copper output at El Teniente to stay 25% below capacity into 2026 after a fatal collapse, delaying recovery efforts and global supply.

Codelco, Chile’s state-owned copper giant, is set to experience lasting repercussions from the deadly accident at its flagship El Teniente mine, with production expected to remain significantly below capacity well into 2026, according to people familiar with the matter.

Reduced output at Codelco’s top mine

Although operations at El Teniente have resumed following the July 31 rock collapse that claimed six lives, production is expected to reach only about 75% of previous output levels throughout next year. The affected area had only recently begun producing and was intended to represent an expanding share of El Teniente’s output over the coming years.

The accident poses a serious challenge to Codelco’s recovery efforts after a prolonged production slump, threatening its position as the world’s leading copper supplier. The difficulties at El Teniente add to a series of disruptions across global copper mines amid surging demand linked to the energy transition and the rapid expansion of data centers.

Investigation and regulatory delay

Sources indicated that Codelco has not yet requested authorization from Chile’s mining regulator, Sernageomin, to restart the still-closed sections of the mine. The company plans to do so only after completing its internal investigation in December.

Codelco Chairman Máximo Pacheco recently told Reuters that production losses for 2025 are now estimated at 48,000 metric tons, up from an earlier forecast of 33,000 tons. Despite the setback, Pacheco expects the company’s total annual output to improve year-over-year. El Teniente produced 356,000 tons of copper in 2024.

Analysts predict slow recovery

Codelco has yet to release its production guidance for 2026. However, analysts at Cesco (Center for Copper and Mining Studies) project that the company will continue to struggle to return to pre-pandemic production levels.

“Most likely, this year’s figure will end up close to last year’s, or perhaps a bit lower,” said Cristián Cifuentes, senior analyst at Cesco. “Looking ahead to 2026, production will likely remain fairly stable — not much different from current levels.”

Mitigation strategies under review

At El Teniente, the company is evaluating ways to offset the production shortfall by increasing output from other mine sections. The success of these efforts will depend on the investigation’s findings and future regulatory approval.

According to consultancy Plusmining, the impact of the collapse on production will likely persist into 2026. “The issue is that the affected area contains replacement resources, and the full effect may not be felt until later,” said Juan Carlos Guajardo, founder of Plusmining. “The real question is what this means for the years ahead.”