Copper price hits new high as Teck cuts production forecast

Copper prices jump to $10,815/t as Teck Resources lowers 2025 output targets due to setbacks at Quebrada Blanca and Highland Valley Copper. Analysts forecast prices could reach $12,000/t next year.

Copper prices surged to their highest level in 16 months on Wednesday after Teck Resources (TSX: TECK.A, TECK.B)(NYSE: TECK) slashed its 2025 production outlook due to ongoing difficulties at its Quebrada Blanca mine in Chile and Highland Valley Copper operation in Canada.

The red metal climbed 0.5% to $10,815 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange, extending a rally fueled by tightening supply conditions. Teck now expects to produce 170,000 to 190,000 tonnes of copper in 2025, down from a previous forecast of 210,000–230,000 tonnes. The company also lowered its guidance for the following three years.

Persistent challenges at key mines

Teck’s Quebrada Blanca (QB) expansion has long been a source of investor frustration, running about $4 billion over budget and years behind schedule. The company continues to face operational challenges, including tailings storage complications, equipment damage, and pit wall instability at the high-altitude site in northern Chile.

Meanwhile, the Highland Valley Copper mine in British Columbia has experienced lower-than-expected ore grades and weather-related disruptions, further weighing on output.

Supply constraints dominate copper outlook

So far this year, copper prices have gained around 23%, as fears of global supply shortages outweigh sluggish demand in major industrial economies like China and Germany. A series of accidents and technical setbacks in top-producing nations — including Chile, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Indonesia — have prompted analysts to revise output projections downward.

Adding to supply woes, Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) declared force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Papua, Indonesia — the world’s second-largest copper operation — after severe flooding halted production. The company confirmed that all seven workers missing in the incident were found dead.

Analysts foresee further price gains

“We are in a world of unprecedented copper supply disruptions, and many of these issues are not short-term,” analysts at Jefferies wrote in a note. “Yet another miss at QB just adds more fuel to the fire.”

Citigroup analysts expect copper prices to climb further, projecting that prices could reach $12,000 per tonne in the first half of 2026, supported by reduced output, a weaker U.S. dollar, and sustained investment in clean energy technologies. They anticipate a gradual correction by late 2026 as disrupted mines come back online.

On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, three-month copper futures rose 1.15% to $11,343 per tonne ($5.156 per pound), signaling continued bullish sentiment among traders betting on tightening global supply.