BHP lifts Jansen Stage 1 potash capex to US$8.4 billion, keeps first production at mid-2027

BHP raised Jansen Stage 1’s investment estimate to US$8.4bn (incl. contingencies) and reaffirmed first production in mid-2027. The miner cited underestimated construction inputs, inflation and scope changes, and outlined execution improvements for Stage 1 and Stage 2.

BHP said it has completed a detailed review of cost and schedule estimates for Stage 1 of its Jansen potash project in Saskatchewan, Canada, and confirmed the project’s total investment estimate will rise to US$8.4 billion (including contingencies). The miner also said the first production timeline has reverted to the original schedule of mid-calendar 2027.

The update extends a multi-year trend of upward revisions for Jansen Stage 1, a cornerstone of BHP’s strategy to add “future-facing” commodities to its portfolio.

From US$5.7bn to US$8.4bn: what changed

When BHP approved Jansen Stage 1 in August 2021, the initial investment estimate was US$5.7 billion. 
That figure was later revised: in July 2025, BHP guided to US$7.0–7.4 billion (including contingencies) and said first production would revert to mid-CY2027. 

Now, following the comprehensive review, the company has lifted the total investment estimate to US$8.4 billion, while keeping the mid-2027 start-up target.

Why costs rose again: underestimated construction hours and materials

BHP said the earlier cost increases reflected inflation and real cost escalation, design development and scope changes, and lower productivity outcomes—themes the company had already flagged in 2025.

But the latest revision was driven mainly by a more basic issue: BHP said construction hours and quantities of materials were identified that had not been included in previous execution cost estimates, following the deep dive into the project’s budget and schedule.

Execution response plan: productivity and tighter contract oversight

Alongside the new estimate, BHP said it has implemented a response plan intended to address cost and schedule risks. The plan includes measures to improve productivity, strengthen project management, and enhance oversight of execution contracts. The company said it expects these steps to support efficiency gains for Stage 1 and improve capital intensity in later phases of the broader Jansen development.

Project status and economics: 75% complete, 4.15 Mtpa, 7.9–9.1% IRR

BHP said Jansen Stage 1 is now 75% complete and continues to be expected to deliver about 4.15 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of production.

At “consensus prices,” the company reported an updated internal rate of return (IRR) of 7.9% to 9.1% and an expected payback period of 11 to 15 years from first production. It also cited underlying EBITDA margins of ~63% to 64%, supported by Jansen’s intended low-cost position.

BHP President Americas Brandon Craig said Jansen is a “long-life, low cost expandable asset” expected to generate benefits for decades, and framed potash as a commodity with long-term demand drivers tied to population growth, changing diets and the need to use arable land more productively and sustainably.

Stage 2 and longer-term expansions

BHP said it is continuing to advance construction of Jansen Stage 2 and will apply the execution improvements identified during the Stage 1 review. The company expects to update the market on the Stage 2 investment expenditure estimate in Q4 FY2026.