Copper as the strategic prize: why Rio Tinto is eyeing Glencore in mining’s new mega-merger wave

RBC says the real logic of a potential Rio–Glencore deal isn’t quick synergies—it’s locking in future copper supply as electrification tightens the market. Chile’s Collahuasi sits at the center of the story.

Copper has become the mining industry’s most strategic currency—and it is now the central driver behind speculation that Rio Tinto could move for Glencore in a transaction that would reshape the global mining hierarchy. According to RBC Capital Markets, investors are increasingly reading the logic less as an immediate value-creation play and more as a race to secure long-life copper exposure in a market facing structural tightness.

RBC’s thesis: “secure copper,” not quick value

RBC mining analyst Ben Davis argues that an offer carrying a 15% to 30% premium over Glencore’s early-January share price could be enough to get a deal done—while also discouraging the kind of counter-move that could come from BHP. In RBC’s framing, that range could value Glencore at up to about US$87 billion.

The more important point, Davis stresses, is strategic: the deal’s underlying purpose would be to lock in copper supply for the next decade, rather than chase near-term synergies.

Why copper is the battleground

The macro story is straightforward: electrification, grid expansion, data centers and the energy transition are all copper-intensive. At the same time, the pipeline of large new mines is limited, permitting timelines are long, and many mature districts face declining grades. In that environment, scale miners increasingly see acquisitions as the fastest path to meaningful copper growth—especially when “tier-one” projects are scarce.

The Chile angle: Collahuasi as a crown-jewel asset

For markets, one of Glencore’s most prized copper positions is its 44% stake in Chile’s Collahuasi, one of the world’s most important copper operations. Collahuasi’s shareholder structure is Anglo American (44%), Glencore (44%), and Japan Collahuasi Resources B.V. (12%).

If Rio were to gain control of Glencore’s portfolio, it would materially increase Rio’s copper leverage—including to Chile—while potentially reducing the group’s historical reliance on iron-ore-heavy earnings.

From talk to process: advisers, deadlines and deal mechanics

Reuters reported that Rio has engaged JPMorgan, Evercore and Macquarie to advise on a potential Glencore acquisition—an important signal that conversations are being modeled with greater seriousness.

Separately, Rio issued a formal statement under the UK Takeover Code noting it has until 5:00 p.m. London time on 5 February 2026 to either announce a firm intention to make an offer or state it does not intend to bid (subject to Takeover Panel extensions).

The complication: Glencore’s coal business

Any Rio–Glencore combination would also inherit Glencore’s sizeable coal exposure—an awkward fit for Rio, which completed the sale of its remaining coal assets in 2018, effectively exiting the sector.

That doesn’t make a deal impossible, but it raises structural questions: keep coal temporarily for simplicity, carve it out later, or pursue asset sales to address investor and regulatory pressure. Industry commentary has repeatedly flagged coal as a key stumbling block in prior merger discussions.